THE IMPACT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATES, AND EXCHANGE RATE ON THE GROWTH OF THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR  IN EAST JAVA

Wahyu Aditama Putra Mukti Wibawa; Karari Budi Prasasti

doi:10.53712/jmm.v10i1.2687

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATES, AND EXCHANGE RATE ON THE GROWTH OF THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN EAST JAVA

Wahyu Aditama Putra Mukti Wibawa, Karari Budi Prasasti

Abstract

Sektor industry pengolahan merupakan sector yang penting dan memberikan kontribusi besar dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh dari variable makro ekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dari sector industry pengolahan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik. Data berupa data time series dari variable suku bunga, inflasi, serta nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi pada sektor industry pengolahan di jawa timur. Pengujian dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode error correction model. Dari hasil penelitian dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa secara jangka panjang variable suku bunga, inflasi, dan nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi pada sektor industri pengolahan pada provinsi Jawa Timur baik itu secara parsial maupun secara simultan. Sedangkan dalam jangka waktu yang panjang variabel inflasi tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sedangkan variabel suku bunga dan variabel nilai tukar berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi pada sektor industri pengolahan di Provinsi jawa Timur. Secara jangka panjang ketiga variabel independent berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuahan ekonomi pada sektor industri pengolahan di Provinsi Jawa Timur.

Keywords

Inflasi, Kurs, Suku Bunga, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Industri Pengolahan

Full Text:

PDF

References

Amri, F. (2022). The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Labor and Money Supply on The Manufacturing Industry Sector in Indonesia 2011 – 2020. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 7(1), 116–131. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v7i1.30434

Arios Tiblola, F., Biay, A., Putri Prawitaningrum, H., & K Lakamudi, R. (2024). Evaluation of the Impact of Monetary Policy on the Financial Performance of Manufacturing Companies: Implications of Interest Rates, Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability. International Journal of Management Science and Information Technology, 4(2), 356–365. https://doi.org/10.35870/ijmsit.v4i2.3126

Charoenrat, T., Harvie, C., & Amornkitvikai, Y. (2013). Thai manufacturing small and medium sized enterprise technical efficiency: Evidence from firm-level industrial census data. Journal of Asian Economics, 27, 42–56.

Esquivias, M. A., & Harianto, S. K. (2020). Does competition and foreign investment spur industrial efficiency?: firm-level evidence from Indonesia. Heliyon, 6(8), e04494.

Hafidz Meiditambua Saefulloh, M., Rizah Fahlevi, M., & Alfa Centauri, S. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Perspektif Indonesia. Jurnal Keuangan Negara Dan Kebijakan Publik, 3(1), 17–26.

Hasanudin, H. (2022). the Influence of Inflation and Exchange Rates on Indonesia’S Economic Growth. Jurnal INFOKUM, 10(05), 1270–1275. http://infor.seaninstitute.org/index.php/infokum/index

Jefry, J., & Djazuli, A. (2020). The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on Stock Prices of Manufacturing Companies in Basic and Chemical Industrial Sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). International Journal of Business, Management & Economics Research, 1(1), 34–49. https://doi.org/10.47747/ijbmer.v1i1.49

Karentina, R. (2019). The Spillover Effects from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Labor Productivity: Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing Sector. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 10(1), 19–30. https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v10i1.1158

Nicholson, W., & Snyder, C. M. (2012). Microeconomic theory: Basic principles and extensions. Cengage Learning.

Oyadeyi, O. O., Osinubi, T. T., Simatele, M., & Oyadeyi, O. A. (2025). The threshold effects of inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Cogent Economics and Finance, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2025.2460066

Prasasti, K. B., Sari, D. W., & Handoyo, R. D. (2022). The effect of foreign direct investment spillovers on the performance of food and baverage. 18(3), 668–677.

Prasasti, K. B., & Slamet, E. J. (2020). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap Inflasi Dan Suku Bunga, Serta Terhadap Investasi Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Airlangga, 30(1), 39. https://doi.org/10.20473/jeba.v30i12020.39-48

Prayogi, A. (2022). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode OLS. Growth: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Pembangunan, 1(2), 1–11.

Sari, D. W., Khalifah, N. A., & Suyanto, S. (2016). The spillover effects of foreign direct investment on the firms’ productivity performances. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 46(2), 199–233.

Suyanto, S., & Sugiarti, Y. (2019). Backward and Forward Linkages of Productivity Effect from Foreign Direct Investment. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 74, 20–23.

TONYE, T., & NWIKINA, C. G. (2023). Effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Manufacturing Sector Performance in Nigeria: Arch and Garch Approach. Gusau Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 4(1), 182–198. https://doi.org/10.57233/gujeds.v4i1.12

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.53712/jmm.v10i1.2687